Implement multi-task learning pipeline for CSGO predictions

Created comprehensive multi-objective modeling system:

**6 Prediction Tasks:**
1. Match Winner (Binary Classification) - Who wins the match?
2. Map Winner (Binary Classification) - Who wins this specific map?
3. Team 1 Score (Regression) - Predict exact round score for team 1
4. Team 2 Score (Regression) - Predict exact round score for team 2
5. Round Difference (Regression) - Predict score margin
6. Total Maps (Regression) - Predict number of maps in match

**Implementation:**
- Updated preprocessing to generate all target variables
- Created train_multitask.py with separate models per task
- Classification tasks use Random Forest Classifier
- Regression tasks use Random Forest Regressor
- All models logged to MLflow experiment 'csgo-match-prediction-multitask'
- Metrics tracked per task (accuracy/precision for classification, MAE/RMSE for regression)
- Updated DVC pipeline to use new training script

**No Data Leakage:**
- All features are pre-match only (rankings, map, starting side)
- Target variables properly separated and saved with 'target_' prefix

This enables comprehensive match analysis and multiple betting/analytics use cases.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

dvc.yaml

@@ -16,9 +16,9 @@ stages:
           cache: false
 
   train:
-    cmd: python src/models/train.py
+    cmd: python src/models/train_multitask.py
     deps:
-      - src/models/train.py
+      - src/models/train_multitask.py
       - data/processed/train.csv
       - data/processed/test.csv
     params:
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ stages:
       - train.max_depth
       - train.random_state
     outs:
-      - models/model.pkl
+      - models/
     metrics:
       - models/metrics.json:
           cache: false

src/data/preprocess.py

@@ -43,10 +43,28 @@ def engineer_features(df):
     features['both_top_tier'] = ((features['rank_1'] <= 10) & (features['rank_2'] <= 10)).astype(int)
     features['underdog_matchup'] = (abs(features['rank_diff']) > 50).astype(int)
 
-    # Target: match_winner (1 or 2) -> convert to 0 or 1
+    # Multi-task targets
-    target = df['match_winner'] - 1
+    targets = {}
 
-    return features, target
+    # Task 1: Match Winner (Binary Classification)
+    targets['match_winner'] = df['match_winner'] - 1  # Convert 1/2 to 0/1
+
+    # Task 2: Exact Score (Regression - two outputs)
+    targets['score_team1'] = df['result_1']
+    targets['score_team2'] = df['result_2']
+
+    # Task 3: Round Difference (Regression)
+    targets['round_diff'] = df['result_1'] - df['result_2']
+
+    # Task 4: Map Count for the match (Multi-class)
+    # Group by match_id to get total maps played
+    match_maps = df.groupby('match_id').size().to_dict()
+    targets['total_maps'] = df['match_id'].map(match_maps)
+
+    # Task 5: Map Winner (Binary Classification for this specific map)
+    targets['map_winner'] = df['map_winner'] - 1  # Convert 1/2 to 0/1
+
+    return features, targets
 
 def save_metrics(X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test):
     """Save dataset metrics"""
@@ -72,44 +90,67 @@ def main():
 
     print("Loading raw data...")
     df = load_raw_data()
-    print(f"Loaded {len(df)} matches")
+    print(f"Loaded {len(df)} maps")
 
     print("Engineering features...")
-    X, y = engineer_features(df)
+    X, targets = engineer_features(df)
     print(f"Created {X.shape[1]} features")
+    print(f"Created {len(targets)} prediction targets:")
+    for target_name in targets.keys():
+        print(f"  - {target_name}")
 
     print("Splitting data...")
-    X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
+    # Use match_winner for stratification
-        X, y,
+    X_train, X_test, idx_train, idx_test = train_test_split(
+        X, X.index,
         test_size=params["test_size"],
         random_state=params["random_state"],
-        stratify=y
+        stratify=targets['match_winner']
     )
 
     print("Saving processed data...")
     Path("data/processed").mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
 
-    # Save full features
+    # Save train set with all targets
-    full_features = X.copy()
-    full_features['target'] = y
-    full_features.to_csv("data/processed/features.csv", index=False)
-
-    # Save train set
     train_data = X_train.copy()
-    train_data['target'] = y_train
+    for target_name, target_values in targets.items():
+        train_data[f'target_{target_name}'] = target_values.iloc[idx_train].values
     train_data.to_csv("data/processed/train.csv", index=False)
 
-    # Save test set
+    # Save test set with all targets
     test_data = X_test.copy()
-    test_data['target'] = y_test
+    for target_name, target_values in targets.items():
+        test_data[f'target_{target_name}'] = target_values.iloc[idx_test].values
     test_data.to_csv("data/processed/test.csv", index=False)
 
-    # Save metrics
+    # Save full features with all targets
-    save_metrics(X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test)
+    full_features = X.copy()
+    for target_name, target_values in targets.items():
+        full_features[f'target_{target_name}'] = target_values.values
+    full_features.to_csv("data/processed/features.csv", index=False)
 
-    print("Preprocessing completed successfully!")
+    # Save metrics
+    print("\nDataset statistics:")
     print(f"Train set: {len(X_train)} samples")
     print(f"Test set: {len(X_test)} samples")
+    print(f"Features: {X.shape[1]}")
+
+    metrics = {
+        "n_samples": len(X),
+        "n_train": len(X_train),
+        "n_test": len(X_test),
+        "n_features": X.shape[1],
+        "targets": list(targets.keys()),
+        "class_balance_match_winner": {
+            "class_0": int((targets['match_winner'] == 0).sum()),
+            "class_1": int((targets['match_winner'] == 1).sum())
+        }
+    }
+
+    with open("data/processed/data_metrics.json", "w") as f:
+        json.dump(metrics, f, indent=2)
+
+    print("Preprocessing completed successfully!")
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":
     main()

src/models/train_multitask.py

@@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
+"""
+Multi-task model training pipeline for CSGO match prediction.
+Trains separate models for different prediction objectives and logs to MLflow.
+"""
+import mlflow
+import mlflow.sklearn
+import yaml
+import json
+import pickle
+import os
+from pathlib import Path
+from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, RandomForestRegressor
+from sklearn.metrics import (
+    accuracy_score, precision_score, recall_score, f1_score, roc_auc_score,
+    mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error, r2_score
+)
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+
+# Configure MLflow
+# MLflow will automatically use MLFLOW_TRACKING_USERNAME and MLFLOW_TRACKING_PASSWORD env vars
+tracking_uri = os.getenv("MLFLOW_TRACKING_URI", "https://mlflow.sortifal.dev")
+mlflow.set_tracking_uri(tracking_uri)
+
+if os.getenv("MLFLOW_TRACKING_USERNAME") and os.getenv("MLFLOW_TRACKING_PASSWORD"):
+    print(f"MLflow configured with authentication for {tracking_uri}")
+else:
+    print(f"MLflow configured without authentication for {tracking_uri}")
+
+# Try to set experiment, but handle auth errors gracefully
+USE_MLFLOW = True
+try:
+    mlflow.set_experiment("csgo-match-prediction-multitask")
+    print(f"Connected to MLflow at {mlflow.get_tracking_uri()}")
+except Exception as e:
+    print(f"Warning: Could not connect to MLflow: {e}")
+    print("Training will continue without MLflow tracking.")
+    USE_MLFLOW = False
+
+def load_params():
+    """Load training parameters from params.yaml"""
+    with open("params.yaml") as f:
+        params = yaml.safe_load(f)
+    return params["train"]
+
+def load_data():
+    """Load preprocessed training and test data"""
+    train_df = pd.read_csv("data/processed/train.csv")
+    test_df = pd.read_csv("data/processed/test.csv")
+
+    # Separate features and targets
+    feature_cols = [col for col in train_df.columns if not col.startswith('target_')]
+    target_cols = [col for col in train_df.columns if col.startswith('target_')]
+
+    X_train = train_df[feature_cols]
+    X_test = test_df[feature_cols]
+
+    # Extract all targets
+    targets_train = {col.replace('target_', ''): train_df[col] for col in target_cols}
+    targets_test = {col.replace('target_', ''): test_df[col] for col in target_cols}
+
+    return X_train, X_test, targets_train, targets_test
+
+def train_classification_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name):
+    """Train a classification model"""
+    print(f"\n[{task_name}] Training Random Forest Classifier...")
+    model = RandomForestClassifier(
+        n_estimators=params["n_estimators"],
+        max_depth=params["max_depth"],
+        random_state=params["random_state"],
+        n_jobs=-1
+    )
+    model.fit(X_train, y_train)
+    return model
+
+def train_regression_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name):
+    """Train a regression model"""
+    print(f"\n[{task_name}] Training Random Forest Regressor...")
+    model = RandomForestRegressor(
+        n_estimators=params["n_estimators"],
+        max_depth=params["max_depth"],
+        random_state=params["random_state"],
+        n_jobs=-1
+    )
+    model.fit(X_train, y_train)
+    return model
+
+def evaluate_classification(model, X_test, y_test, task_name):
+    """Evaluate classification model"""
+    print(f"[{task_name}] Evaluating...")
+    y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
+    y_pred_proba = model.predict_proba(X_test)[:, 1]
+
+    metrics = {
+        f"{task_name}_accuracy": float(accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred)),
+        f"{task_name}_precision": float(precision_score(y_test, y_pred, zero_division=0)),
+        f"{task_name}_recall": float(recall_score(y_test, y_pred, zero_division=0)),
+        f"{task_name}_f1_score": float(f1_score(y_test, y_pred, zero_division=0)),
+        f"{task_name}_roc_auc": float(roc_auc_score(y_test, y_pred_proba))
+    }
+
+    return metrics
+
+def evaluate_regression(model, X_test, y_test, task_name):
+    """Evaluate regression model"""
+    print(f"[{task_name}] Evaluating...")
+    y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
+
+    metrics = {
+        f"{task_name}_mae": float(mean_absolute_error(y_test, y_pred)),
+        f"{task_name}_mse": float(mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)),
+        f"{task_name}_rmse": float(np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred))),
+        f"{task_name}_r2": float(r2_score(y_test, y_pred))
+    }
+
+    return metrics
+
+def save_models(models, all_metrics):
+    """Save all models and metrics locally"""
+    Path("models").mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+
+    # Save each model
+    for task_name, model in models.items():
+        model_path = f"models/model_{task_name}.pkl"
+        with open(model_path, "wb") as f:
+            pickle.dump(model, f)
+        print(f"Saved {task_name} model to {model_path}")
+
+    # Save all metrics
+    with open("models/metrics.json", "w") as f:
+        json.dump(all_metrics, f, indent=2)
+    print(f"Metrics saved to models/metrics.json")
+
+def main():
+    """Main multi-task training pipeline"""
+    print("=" * 70)
+    print("CSGO Match Prediction - Multi-Task Model Training")
+    print("=" * 70)
+
+    # Load parameters and data
+    params = load_params()
+    X_train, X_test, targets_train, targets_test = load_data()
+
+    print(f"\nDataset info:")
+    print(f"  Training samples: {len(X_train)}")
+    print(f"  Test samples: {len(X_test)}")
+    print(f"  Features: {X_train.shape[1]}")
+    print(f"  Prediction tasks: {len(targets_train)}")
+
+    # Define tasks
+    tasks = {
+        'match_winner': {'type': 'classification', 'description': 'Match Winner Prediction'},
+        'map_winner': {'type': 'classification', 'description': 'Map Winner Prediction'},
+        'score_team1': {'type': 'regression', 'description': 'Team 1 Score Prediction'},
+        'score_team2': {'type': 'regression', 'description': 'Team 2 Score Prediction'},
+        'round_diff': {'type': 'regression', 'description': 'Round Difference Prediction'},
+        'total_maps': {'type': 'regression', 'description': 'Total Maps Prediction'}
+    }
+
+    models = {}
+    all_metrics = {}
+
+    if USE_MLFLOW:
+        with mlflow.start_run(run_name="multitask-rf-csgo"):
+            # Log parameters
+            mlflow.log_params(params)
+            mlflow.log_param("n_features", X_train.shape[1])
+            mlflow.log_param("n_train_samples", len(X_train))
+            mlflow.log_param("n_test_samples", len(X_test))
+            mlflow.log_param("n_tasks", len(tasks))
+
+            # Train and evaluate each task
+            for task_name, task_config in tasks.items():
+                print(f"\n{'='*70}")
+                print(f"Task: {task_config['description']}")
+                print(f"{'='*70}")
+
+                if task_name not in targets_train:
+                    print(f"Warning: {task_name} not found in training data, skipping...")
+                    continue
+
+                y_train = targets_train[task_name]
+                y_test = targets_test[task_name]
+
+                # Train model based on task type
+                if task_config['type'] == 'classification':
+                    model = train_classification_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name)
+                    metrics = evaluate_classification(model, X_test, y_test, task_name)
+                else:
+                    model = train_regression_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name)
+                    metrics = evaluate_regression(model, X_test, y_test, task_name)
+
+                models[task_name] = model
+                all_metrics.update(metrics)
+
+                # Log metrics to MLflow
+                mlflow.log_metrics(metrics)
+
+                # Print results
+                print(f"\n{task_name} Results:")
+                for metric, value in metrics.items():
+                    print(f"  {metric}: {value:.4f}")
+
+            # Save models and metrics
+            save_models(models, all_metrics)
+
+            # Print summary
+            print("\n" + "=" * 70)
+            print("Training Summary:")
+            print("=" * 70)
+            print(f"Models trained: {len(models)}")
+            print(f"Total metrics: {len(all_metrics)}")
+            print("=" * 70)
+
+            print(f"\nMLflow run ID: {mlflow.active_run().info.run_id}")
+            print(f"View run at: {mlflow.get_tracking_uri()}")
+    else:
+        # Train without MLflow
+        for task_name, task_config in tasks.items():
+            print(f"\n{'='*70}")
+            print(f"Task: {task_config['description']}")
+            print(f"{'='*70}")
+
+            if task_name not in targets_train:
+                print(f"Warning: {task_name} not found in training data, skipping...")
+                continue
+
+            y_train = targets_train[task_name]
+            y_test = targets_test[task_name]
+
+            # Train model based on task type
+            if task_config['type'] == 'classification':
+                model = train_classification_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name)
+                metrics = evaluate_classification(model, X_test, y_test, task_name)
+            else:
+                model = train_regression_model(X_train, y_train, params, task_name)
+                metrics = evaluate_regression(model, X_test, y_test, task_name)
+
+            models[task_name] = model
+            all_metrics.update(metrics)
+
+            # Print results
+            print(f"\n{task_name} Results:")
+            for metric, value in metrics.items():
+                print(f"  {metric}: {value:.4f}")
+
+        # Save models and metrics
+        save_models(models, all_metrics)
+
+        print("\n" + "=" * 70)
+        print("Training Summary:")
+        print("=" * 70)
+        print(f"Models trained: {len(models)}")
+        print(f"Total metrics: {len(all_metrics)}")
+        print("=" * 70)
+
+    print("\nMulti-task training pipeline completed successfully!")
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()